Analysis of the Relationship between CPO Prices, Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), and GRDP regarding Non-Oil and Gas Exports in Riau Province

Nurma Yuriski, B Isyandi, M Hamid

Abstract


This study aims to analyze the relationships among Crude Palm Oil (CPO) prices, Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), and Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) with respect to non-oil and gas exports in Riau Province. A quantitative approach was employed using annual secondary data covering the period from 2006 to 2025. Analysis was conducted using multiple linear regression after classical assumption tests for normality, multicollinearity, heteroscedasticity, and autocorrelation. The results indicate that CPO prices have a positive and significant relationship with non-oil and gas exports, with a coefficient of 0.613 and a significance value of 0.000. GFCF shows a positive coefficient of 0.315 but is not statistically significant (p-value = 0.756). GRDP at constant prices has a coefficient of -0.613 and is not statistically significant (p-value = 0.767). Simultaneously, CPO prices, GFCF, and GRDP exhibit a significant relationship with non-oil and gas exports, as evidenced by an F-statistic of 7.592 and a significance value of 0.003. The R² value of 0.603 indicates that these three variables can explain 60.3% of the variation in non-oil and gas exports. The findings suggest that CPO price dynamics exhibit the strongest partial relationship, whereas the relationships involving GFCF and GRDP were not found to be significant during the study's observation period.

 

Keywords: CPO Price, GFCF, GRDP, Non-Oil Exports, Regional Economy


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References


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DOI: https://doi.org/10.21107/bep.v7i2.36145

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