Perlambatan Pertumbuhan dan Transisi Demografi di Indonesia

Fitri Rusdianasari, Siti Komariyah, Moh Adenan

Abstract


Perlambatan pertumbuhan muncul akibat dari fluktuasi makroekonomi dan gejala demografi Indonesia. Merosotnya perekonomian global membawa dampak pada perekonomian domestik baik bagi negara maju dan negara berkembang termasuk Indonesia. Selain itu, kondisi profil demografi Indonesia yang cenderung meningkat juga diindikasikan dapat berpengaruh pada perlambatan perekonomian Indonesia. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mencari hubungan antara variabel makroekonomi dan demografi dalam memengaruhi perlambatan ekonomi serta melihat hubungan jangka panjang profil demografi dalam meningkatkan kinerja GDP per kapita. Untuk menjawab permasalahan tersebut digunakan analisis regresi dengan metode OLS serta uji kointegrasi melalui Johansen test. Hasil estimasi menunjukkan bahwa variabel demografi yang menyebabkan perlambatan ekonomi Indonesia. Namun disisi lain, profil demografi Indonesia seperti dependency ratio dan life expectacy dalam jangka panjang akan berkontribusi positif terhadap perekonomian. Hasil ini mendukung proyeksi demografi Indonesia yang menunjukkan hasil bahwa dalam kurun waktu 2020-2030, Indonesia akan memperoleh bonus demografi yang nantinya akan memberikan kontribusi besar terhadap perekonomian Indonesia

Keywords


Perlambatan Pertumbuhan, Transisi Demografi, Bonus Demografi , GDP per Kapita

References


ADB. (2016). Asia ’ S Potential Growth Outlook 2016.

Aiyar, S and A Mody (2011) The demographic dividend: Evidence from the Indian states. IMF Working Paper 11/38 (IMF,NewYork); www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2011/wp1138.pdf.

Aiyar, S., Romain A. Duval, Damien Puy, Yiqun Wu and Longmei Zhang. (2013). Growth Slowdowns and the Middle-Income Trap. IMF Working Papers No. 13/71 International Monetary Fund

Bank Indonesia. (2015). 2015 economic report on indonesia issn 0522-2572.

Bloom, David E and JGWilliamson. (1998). Demographic transitions and economic miracles in emerging Asia. Perspective World economic Bank Economic Review ,12 (3): 419–56

Craven, B. D., & Islam, S. M. N. (2011). Ordinary least-squares regression. The SAGE Dictionary of Quantitative Management Research, 224–228. https://doi.org/10.4135/9781446251119.n67

Direktorat Statistik dan Moneter. (2011). Informasi Kependudukan Indonesia, (November).

Dissou, Y., Didic, S., & Yakautsava, T. (2012). Government Spending on Education, Human Capital Accumulation, and Growth ∗, (June).

Drehmann, M., Sorensen, S., & Stringa, M. (2006). Integrating credit and interest rate risk : A theoretical framework and an application to banks â€TM balance sheets.

Eichengreen, Barry, Dwight Perkins and Kwanho Shin. (2013). Growth Slowdowns Redux: New Evidence on the Middle Income Trap. NBER Working Paper No. 18673

Fang, C., & Wang, D. (2000). Demographic transition : implications for growth, 34–52.

Galo Nuno, Cristina Pulido, and Ru. S. C. (2012). Long-run growth and demographic prospects in advanced economies.

Greene, William H. (2012). Econometric Analysis Sevent Edition. New York: Prentice Hall

Hasoloan, Maruli A. __. Country Report The Indonesian Labor Market. The OECD Forum on the restated OECD Jobs Strategy

Hausmann, Ricardo and C. Hidalgo. (2010). Country Diversification, Product Ubiquity, and Economic Divergence. CID Working Paper No. Harvard University.

Hjalmarsson, E., & Österholm, P. (2010). Testing for cointegration using the Johansen methodology when variables are near-integrated: Size distortions and partial remedies. Empirical Economics, 39(1), 51–76. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-009-0294-6

Irfani Fithria dkk. (2015). Perekonomian Indonesia Di Tengah Bayang - Bayang Perlambatan Global. RPM FEUI Quarterly Report, 3. Retrieved from http://www.feb.ui.ac.id/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/RPM-FEUI-Quarterly-Report-2015-Vol.-3.pdf

Jayasooriya, S. P. (2017). Growth Slowdowns, Middle-Income Trap, and Demographic Profile in South Asia, (736).

Joe, W., Dash, A. K., & Agrawal, P. (2015). Demographic transition, savings, and economic growth in China and India. IEG Working Paper, (351).

Jorgensen, O. H. (2010). Health , Demographic Transition and Economic Growth. World, (May).

Lehmijoki, U. (2003). Demographic Transition and Economic Growth (Vol. 8).

Mason, A. (2005). Demographic Transition and Demographic Dividends in Developed and Developing Countries. The Extraordinary General Meeting (EGM), p.22. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.004

Mencet, M. N., & Firat, M. Z. (2006). Cointegration analysis of wine export prices for France , Greece and Turkey. Exchange Organizational Behavior Teaching Journal, 1–17.

Misra, R. (2015). Impact of Demographic Dividend on Economic Growth. International Studies, 52(1–4), 99–117. https://doi.org/10.1177/0020881717714685

OECD. (2016). Survei Ekonomi OECD INDONESIA, 4. Retrieved from https://www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/indonesia-2016-OECD-economic-survey-overview-bahasa.pdf

Panggabean, A. (2017). Economic outlook : Indonesia in 2017, (November 2016).

Peterson, E. W. F. (2017). The role of population in economic growth. SAGE Open, 7(4). https://doi.org/10.1177/2158244017736094

Robertson, Peter and Longfeng Ye. (2013). On the existence of a middle income trap. Economic Discussion Paper No: 13-12. University of Western Australia, Perth.

Rynn, J. (2001). Theories of Rise and Fall, Part 2: Neoclassical Economic Growth Theory. The Power to Create Wealth: A Systems-Based Theory of the Rise and Decline of the Great Powers in the 20th Century, 62–85.

Williamson, Jeffrey. (1997). Growth, distribution and demography: some lessons from history. NBER Working No.6244, National Bureau Economic Research, Cambridge, MA. World




DOI: https://doi.org/10.21107/mediatrend.v14i1.4740

Bookmark and Share


Copyright (c) 2019 Media Trend

Creative Commons License

Mediatrend © 2015 - Journal of Economic & Development Studies | Development Economics Program - Faculty of Economics and Bussiness, Trunojoyo University
DESKRIPSI GAMBAR DESKRIPSI GAMBAR