Maluku Economic Recovery During the Covid-19 Pandemic and Entering the New Normal Era

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.21107/mediatrend.v15i2.9513 2460-7649 © 2020 MediaTrend. All rights reserved. Covid-19 globally has affected all sectors, and the lock down has aggravated world economic conditions, including Maluku Province. The research objectives are (1) to describe the sectors affected by the Covid-19 pandemic in terms of economic growth; (2) Describe the impact of covid-19 on the workforce; (3) Knowing the policies carried out by local governments in handling the socio-economic impacts of Covid-19; (4) Formulating a strategy for economic recovery from the impact of covid-19 and entering the new normal era. The method used in this research is descriptive quantitative, from the data published by competent government agencies. The results showed (1) out of 17 sectors, there were 13 sectors that experienced a contraction in economic growth, showing that the initial impact of Covid-19 in Jakarta had contributed to the economic contraction in Maluku in tw 1 and tw-2, economic growth declined due to PSBB in the city. Ambon. (2) the number of unemployed increases with the number of layoffs and workers who are laid off. (3) Regional government policies are very maximal in terminating the chain of transmission but have not been able to reduce the level of spread, the longer efforts to deal with the transmission chain through PSBB will have an increasingly impact on the economy and (4) Economic recovery strategies can be implemented through five activities in 2020 in the third quarter to to IV and in the year 2021


INTRODUCTION
A country's economic growth is determined by its regional economy (Ascani, Crescenzi and Lammarino, 2012). The success of a country's economic growth depends on the success of its regional development. An area is said to be growing and developing characterized by a growth in per capita income, changes in employment, changes in population and employment, growth in business and growth in human resources (Lewis, 1980;Mathur, 1999). This Covid-19 pandemic will demand changes in the economic growth scenario as in the 2020-2024 RPJMN.
The spread of the corona virus globally continues to increase, until 12 August 2020 as many as 20,492,950 infections, with 744,134 deaths and 13,417,612 recoveries (Kompas, 12/8/2020). The number of casualties caused panic so that several countries have responded with various policies of entry and exit of people or lock down in order to break the chain of transmission such as China, the United States, Britain and countries in Europe. This lock down caused the productive economies in all countries to stall and caused an economic downturn over the crisis and recession in the depression period of the early 20th century.
The world economy is experiencing contraction. In view of the economic growth, according to the IMF, it is estimated that economic growth will decline by around -3.0%. Meanwhile, Indonesia is estimated to be around 0.5%. This contraction is inseparable from the economic conditions of Indonesia's partner countries such as the United States with growth of -4.8% and China -6.8%. Of course this condition has a very big impact on the national and regional economy, especially since Indonesia still has high dependence on other countries. What about Maluku Province as an archipelago? It turns out that the same conditions have also been experienced since the covid-19 pandemic can be seen from the economic growth also experiencing contraction in the first quarter report with negative growth in most sectors, there are 13 sectors with minus growth out of 17 sectors forming PDRB (BRS Maluku, 2020) . Economic growth contracted more deeply in the second quarter, along with the regional-scale Social Restrictions (PSBR) policy and increased to large-scale social restrictions (PSBB) in line with the increasing number of people affected by . The conditions that require the implementation of the PSBR and PSBB have stopped the mobility of people and goods, halted production activities, workers have been laid off and at home, have even caused many people to experience difficulties in fulfilling their daily needs, or have weakened people's purchasing power. This cycle that occurs in a cumulative circular manner makes economic growth in 13 sectors experience a negative growth in the first and second quarters (q to q).
Based on the portrait of Maluku's economic development for two quarters, strategic efforts are needed through several other economic indicators that can be photographed through this research so that handling steps during the Covid-19 pandemic and entering the new normal era can be input for economic recovery in Maluku. As the background of the above research, this study will examine "Maluku Economic Recovery in the Covid-19 Pandemic Period and Entering the New Normal Era".

METHODOLOGY
The data used in this study are quantitative secondary data published by competent government agencies such as the Maluku Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS), Bank Indonesia, the Manpower Office, the Tourism Office and other relevant agencies. The data is collected from periodicals in the form of books and reports from government agencies. The collected data were then analyzed using quantita-tive descriptive methods with the help of graphs and tables.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic in Maluku has been felt since the first quarter. The economy contracted both in terms of demand and supply. Production activities almost stopped at the same time household consumption and government consumption as components of support for Maluku's economic growth experienced a sharp decline.
The economic cycle cannot move, there are job relations terminated, workers are laid off with no income, the company also has no income which has consequences for unemployment and increases poverty. Report from the Governor of Maluku, the number of poverty increased due to the impact of Covid-19 by 40% from 17% or an increase of 23%.
Maluku province's economic growth grew by 4.01% in the first quarter (y on y) of 2020, but experienced a contraction (q to q) of -2.32% when compared to the fourth quarter of 2019. second quarter (q to q) of 2020 amounting to -2.62%. The decrease in contraction occurred as a result of policies since the Regional-Scale Social Restrictions (PSBR) since April-May. In June 2020 this status was upgraded to Large-Scale Social Restrictions (PSBB), so that economic activity is increasingly paralyzed. When compared to the conditions before Covid-19 in 2019, the second quarter with the second quarter of 2020 (y on y) after Covid-19 illustrates that Maluku's economy is also in a state of contraction of -0.92% (BRS Maluku, 2020).
Based on the 17 PDRB sectors in Maluku, there are 13 sectors that contributed to Maluku's economic growth in the first quarter of 2020, indicated by the value of the growth rate having decreased (-), and there were eight sectors that had the highest decline. The sectors that experienced the biggest decline were the construction and education services sector, respectively -5.52% and -5.32% (tw-1). While the growth contraction in (tw-2) was the transportation and warehousing business sector -17.97%, followed by the business sector providing accommodation and food and drink with a growth contraction of -11.88%, a sharp decline from the first quarter and the trade category. retail, car and motorcycle repair experienced a growth contraction of -4.23%.
Several phenomena describe a contraction in the sector, namely, in the first quarter, Maluku experienced contrac Source: Maluku TW 1 and TW-2 of BPS report Figure 1. Highest Economic Growth Contraction tion when it was discovered that there was one case of exposure on 22 March. This indicates that the spread of affected people has increased in DKI Jakarta, and has spread throughout the country, thus paralyzing all regional economic activities in Indonesia including Maluku, both in implementing programs related to budgets that must be allocated to regions, as well as other economic activities. at the center, it is difficult to distribute them to the regions. Most investors cannot take the risk that development activities in the regions will continue. And in the second quarter, DKI Jakarta has implemented the PSBB on 10-23 April 2020.
There is a government policy to "refocus" and "reallocate" several activities and programs, which apply nationally. The decision to adjust the reallocation and refocusing of the APBD budget is based on the joint decision of the Minister of Home Affairs and the Minister of Finance Number 119/2813 / SJ and 117 / KMK 07/2020 concerning the Acceleration of Adjustment of the 2020 APBD.
The joint decision of the two ministries will certainly have an impact on program adjustments that must be re-planned, and there will be delays related to program implementation (1) the Regional-Scale Social Restrictions policy and its status upgraded to Large-Scale Social Restrictions, especially in Ambon City, will stop production activities and have an impact on decreasing. public consumption, (2) the Refocusing and Reallocation policy makes several programs such as official travel and physical activities partially eliminated, and (3) PSBB conditions, causing physical activities to experience delays, as a followup impact, administrative problems there is no bidding process at the OPD level, so that construction services experienced the sharpest contraction. Meanwhile education services also contracted until the second quarter, as a result of the government policy taking steps for a while teaching and learning activities at all levels of education were carried out online, which had a "decreasing" impact on all derivative products of Education services such as canteens, photocopies, transportation. and others.
Economic growth in terms of usage that has the largest contribution is Household Consumption (KRT), followed by government consumption. The growth rate of KRT (y-on-y) was 2.10%. However, during the pandemic, its growth (q-to-q) contracted by -5.56%, this indicates that during the first quarter of 2020, the household sector experienced a relatively large impact. Whereas in the second quarter the role of household consumption decreased its growth rate (y-on-y) which was equal to -1.24, meaning that the tw-1 growth rate was positive while in tw-2 it decreased with a negative value, it is clear that both PSBR and PSBB has a high influence on the downward fluctuation of household consumption growth in the second quarter (y on y) also continues to contract: (Food and beverages, clothing and grooming services, housing and household supplies, health, education, restaurants and so on) .
Government consumption contracted higher than household consumption in the first quarter (q to q), because most of the collective consumption for development had not yet been implemented, as did individual consumption such as official travel and so on. In the second quarter, the government has implemented several policies that can stimulate government consumption, for example the covid impact budget distributed to vulnerable communities in the form of direct cash assistance (BLT), assistance for employees affected by layoffs, pre-employment cards that will function for four months will be given incentives. IDR 600,000 per month, so that it can drive the consumption of vulnerable people. Government policy by increasing government consumption can increase economic growth, as seen in the second quarter (q to q) there was a positive growth of 0.17. This means that the government as the controller of development has played a role in maintaining economic growth in terms of consumption in the second quarter.
The Maluku Provincial government policy breaks the chain of spread of Covid-19 in the form of regional-scale social restrictions and is then upgraded to Large-Scale Social Restrictions, especially in Ambon City as an area that has a red zone, impacting on population movement outside the home and limiting population mobility between regions. The consequences of the policies taken have an impact on economic costs as well as social costs such as increased unemployment as a result of the cessation of company operations.
February 2020 unemployment in Maluku was 52,710, decreased by 111 people (0.21%) compared to February 2019 of 52,821 people. However, the Open Unemployment Rate (TPT, y on y) has increased from 6.91% February 2019 to 7.02% February 2020. The Labor Force (AK) has decreased and unemployment has also decreased but the decline in unemployment (0.11) is not comparable with the number of decreases in the Labor Force (0.21). The number of unemployed and TPT will increase along with the increase in layoffs and workers who are laid off. July 2020, as many as 107 companies operating in Maluku have terminated 205 employees, and 1,793 people have been dismissed (Disnaketrans Maluku, July 2020). Companies that lay off employees and make layoffs, because they are unable to retain employees, are due to reduced activities and some even terminate activities (Farida Salampessy, 2020).
There are 49,748 workers in Maluku spread across 7,134 companies with details of 7,129 private companies, 5 foreign-owned companies (Disnaketrans document, 2020), showing that the number of companies from 11 urban districts in Maluku is only 5 districts / cities that carry out labor policies for sent home. The other six districts do not have any data recorded at the Dinas Tenaga Kerja. Since July 2020, East Seram Regency (SBT) is a high risk zone for Covid-19, while four districts (West Southeast Maluku, South Buru, Southeast Maluku, Aru Islands) have no impact or are included in the green zone, in fact there are two districts (Kep Tanimbar / Kab. Maluku Tenggara Barat and Maluku Tenggara) which houses the workers. Buru Regency is included in the low risk or yellow zone, the company directly houses workers, in contrast to the other three districts that are in the yellow zone or low risk (Tual City, West Seram, Southwest Maluku) do not lay off or lay off workers. In other words, districts / cities that have the same zone do not necessarily have the same impact on workers who are sent home or laid off.
Unlike the Tourism Office specifically until June 2020, the workforce affected by Covid-19 in the tourism sector is spread across 11 regencies and cities totaling 3,749, the highest number in Ambon City 2,670 people, the second highest in Central Maluku Regency and the lowest in Southeast Maluku. as many as 19 people, the number of workers is scattered in restaurants, associations (Asita), hotels, restaurants.
Since August 2020, the impact of Covid-19 on the working age population is 19,508, most people are unemployed because their working hours have been reduced by 87.75 percent, for example on transportation (motorcycle taxis, fourwheeled public transportation), restaurants and others).
Since the discovery of one positive case of Covid-19 on March 22, 2020, the Maluku government has been on standby by tightening the entrance to the Pattimura airport and port through a government policy called extraordinary events. Positive cases of exposure to covid-19 are increas-ing until September 18, 2020, the number of confirmed cases is 2,510, healed 1,585, and in the process of healing as many as 887 people. April -September the number of positive people is increasing, August 716 and increasing per September 18 to 725 people, meaning that the growth of people who will be confirmed positive in September will increase with the existence of a government policy implementing the obligation for all state apparatus to carry out swab mass in all government agencies of Maluku Province, and Regency / City.
As of October 2020, the local government has implemented several health policies to break the chain of transmission, namely: (1) Social Restrictions, (2) Public Education Programs. Public education programs by local governments are carried out through calls on banners, as well as calls on other social media by the Task Force. (3) Massive Contac Tracing Program. This activity is carried out for affected communities and is widely traced to positive confirmed patients who have a history of contact with other people, and (4) Where: KLB : Extraordinary event PSBR: Regional-Scale Social Restrictions PSBB: Large-Scale Social Restrictions

Figure 2. Number of People Who Are Positive Covid-19 and the Transmission Chain Breaking Policy
the aggressive testing program. The fourth program was carried out for the community, until October 2020, a swab was carried out for all government agencies of Maluku Province and several city districts that are currently doing it, that is why the number of people without symptoms (OTG) was found to be increasing, after the swab was carried out. In addition, the implementation of the PSBR and PSBB directly affects the mobility of the community towards consumption and production activities which can be carried out in several places.
The percentage change in some places of activity with the highest decline, namely mobility to the workplace, decreased by 48 percent, as seen by changes in the work pattern of the community who are required from home to be able to use virtual for government and private agencies, as well as in education, besides Most non-PNS workers were laid off and at home for non-PNS workers.
Regional revenue becomes the basis for determining the size of government consumption. In addition to household consumption, what is also affected is government consumption on Maluku economic growth, although it has increased by 0.81% compared to the fourth quarter of 2019, but with the existence of several legislative products issued by the central government in the fiscal and financial fields will affect Maluku's development budget posture due to the impact of covid-19. Adjustments to the 2020 APBD are carried out by adjusting revenue transfers to regions and Village Funds, adjusting PAD by taking into account the potential for regional taxes and levies of each region, rationalizing personnel spending, rationalizing goods / services expenditures by at least 50% by reducing expenditure budgets, rationalizing expenditures capital of at least 50% by reducing the budget. Every region in Indonesia is required to make adjustments as outlined in the APBD Adjustment Report and thereafter must be reported to the Ministry of Finance and the Source: Google report Figure 3.

Changes in Community Mobility During the Covid-19 Pandemic
Ministry of Home Affairs. Regional governments that do not meet the provisions of the 2020 APBD report may postpone the distribution of part of the DAU or DBH. As of June 2020, actual revenue has reached 54.78%, consisting of Regional Original Revenue (Dispenda) reaching 49.79%, Transfer income of 55.78% while other legal income has only reached 12.04%. The target of PAD acceptance in the Covid-19 pandemic situation can be said to be good through optimal efforts that have been made by the Regional Revenue Service of Maluku Province and building synergy with all OPDs in order to accelerate the realization and optimization of the potential exploration of PAD.
PAD the largest contribution is still contributed by Regional Taxes, the realization is around 53.54%, including Motor Vehicle Tax of 53.68%, Transfer of Motor Vehicle Title Fee of 64.40%, Motor Vehicle Fuel Tax of 60 , 65%, ground water tax of 26.84% and cigarette tax of 43.60%. The achievement in Motor Vehicle Tax has reached 53.68%. This condition is considered very good because in the PSBB condition, the revenue has reached more than 50% in the second quarter, the hope is that entering a new normal state, community activities will run as usual by paying attention to health protocols. Besides, this number is considered good because there is a government policy to provide relief in the form of a delay in payment. On the other hand, the revenue from motor vehicle fuel tax is also relatively good, namely 60.65%, because at the same time there are restrictions on population mobility that have an effect on reducing the use of motorized vehicles, especially in Ambon City.
From the expenditure side, up to the second quarter of 2020, the realization of the total APBD Expenditure had only reached 34.33%, while personnel expenditure reached 40.34% (BRS Maluku, 2020). In the formation of GRDP, government consumption has increased in the second quarter compared to the first quarter of 2020 by 0.17%. This means that the government (1) is still careful in spending the available funds, (2) there are operational barriers due to the existence of PSBB, the government is still focused on health issues. The realization of the APBD will increase along with the government's efforts to drive development. The 2020 Regional Expenditure Budget (APBD) before Covid-19 is IDR 3.37 Trillion, There has been an adjustment due to Covid-19 so that the APBD becomes IDR 3.11 trillion, the decrease is adjusted to the projected decline in income. Expenditure realization up to the second quarter was Rp. 25.6%. This realization is still low, less than 50% where it has been in the 2nd quarter, this is because of the Regional-Scale Social Policy and upgraded to Large-Scale Social Restrictions, this condition hinders the refocusing process and the auction process for physical activities. The low realization of the APBD to realize government consumption, one of which is in construction services, is why the construction sector experienced a very high contraction with growth of -5.52% in the first quarter also deepening in the second quarter.
The target of the self-employment card program is given to daily workers, the formal sector, the informal sector and Micro and Small Business actors affected by Covid-19, as well as for Indonesian citizens who are 18 years old and who are not attending formal education. Maluku's high control span as an archipelago still has internet network constraints, therefore it is important to do socialization, especially for people who are constrained when uploading their equipment needs, on government corridors through the Manpower Office and the community through social media. From the quota of Maluku 37,656 beneficiaries up to October 2020, the total who have registered and have received incentives has exceeded the quota set at 56,053 or an excess of 18,397 people.
There are two refocusing programs to increase employment opportunities for workers affected by covid-19, namely the program to increase job opportunities aimed at creating new entrepreneurs consisting of four groups with a budget value for four packages of Rp. 200,000,000. This activity has a target in Ambon City covering four villages (Batu Merah, Ponogoro, Waehaong and Galala). This program is intended for Central Maluku Regency, covering two villages, namely Hitu Meseng Village and Hila Kaitetu Village. The aim of the Program is to facilitate access in and out of plantations, as well as facilitate the marketing of produce. This program involves workers from program villages affected by Covid-19, namely: workers who have been laid off, car drivers, fishermen, farmers, workers who are at home.
In addition to the Maluku Provincial Manpower Office Program related to labor-intensive programs, several other programs run by the ministry to reduce the impact on the workforce are from the Ministry of Transportation, Ministry of PUPR, Ministry of KKP, and Ministry of Agriculture, and the highest intervention is the Ministry of PUPR.
The role of the Maluku Bank Indonesia Representative in the covid-19 conditions on economic stability, by carrying out various program policies both in health management programs through a number of PPE assistance, as well as programs for strengthening the Economy through: strengthening SMEs, controlling the econ-omy through price stability and ensuring strategic supply through the Team Controlling Inflation so that inflation in Maluku is still under control, and is still on the achievement target in the first quarter and second quarter.
Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs), which have been supporting the Indonesian and regional economies, almost all of the UKM players experienced suspended animation due to the Covid-19 pandemic. SMEs in Maluku province are also affected on the scale of production and marketing. To maintain the balance of SME players, the government through the role of the Bank Indonesia Representative of Maluku encourages SMEs as the real sector through digital capacity building, so that they are able to survive during a pandemic. Prior to Covid-19, BI Maluku already had a group of assisted SMEs, and during the pandemic capacity building assistance was further expanded through the participation of the general public in receiving product marketing digitalization training. This role has directly supported the Cooperative Office and UMKM. Confirmed cases that are still high and worsening economic conditions (quarter I, II) are indi cations that the efforts of the local government to handle Covid-19 while at the same time reconstructing the regional economy still need to be improved. If a cartesian diagram is made with a quadrant, then Maluku Province is in quadrant I, where confirmed cases are increasing and economic conditions are still deteriorating.  On the other hand, the provincial budget allocation is to restore regional economic conditions. It has also been carried out in the first and second quarters, despite the fact that economic growth slows down, the open unemployment rate rises, household consumption slows down, production activity stops, government consumption continues to slow down, poverty increases and others. In this case the position of Maluku in the Cartesian diagram comparing policy and economic conditions, however, economic conditions continued to deteriorate in the second quarter.
Taking into account the current conditions until October 2020, the prediction of economic growth will still be in the same condition, experiencing a contraction in the third quarter due to the existence of PSBB in Ambon City. However, based on data on economic recovery programs that have been carried out by the central and regional governments until September, all programs have increased such as the Labor Intensive Program, the Pre-Employment Card, the Village Fund BLT Program, PKH, Basic Food Assistance, MSME Assistance and others in the context of En-

Position of Maluku Province in Relation to Economic Conditions and Economic
Recovery Policies couraging public consumption, provided that this program is managed institutionally by no moral hazard. So optimistically, it will encourage an increase in household consumption growth in the third quarter and fourth quarter. As well as an increase in capital expenditures, goods and person nel expenditures will increase increasing government consumption, so that together it will increase economic growth in the third quarter (q to q), except for y on y a little bit difficult because the APBN is still minus.
The economic recovery strategy can be described through the dis cussion in the Table 3.

Strategy for Economic Recovery during the Pandemic and Entering the New Normal Era in Maluku
previous sub-chapter, so that it can provide direction for the strategy to be carried out by considering the results of the research which shows the economic conditions of Maluku in the first and second quarters, then the recovery strategies that can be carried out in appendix

CONCLUSIONS
Based on the results of the above research analysis, it can be concluded that of the 17 sectors, there are 13 sectors experiencing contraction in economic growth. although government consumption experienced positive growth in the second quarter, it did not necessarily increase economic growth in general in the second quarter, because at the same time household consumption experienced a deeper contraction.
The number of unemployed continues to increase with the increase in the number of layoffs and workers who are laid off. The efforts of the local government by issuing various policies are very maximal in breaking the chain of transmission, the number which has increased in the second quarter and after the second quarter, proving that: (a) the level of public awareness is still low in obeying the Health protocol; (b) there is a mass effort by the government through tracking, swab, and finding OTG; (c) the high level of public apathy towards the Health protocol due to information asymmetry that creates distrust in the handling of the impact of Covid-19 by the local government The longer the effort to deal with the chain of transmission through PSBB, the more it will have an impact on the Maluku economy, seen in the second quarter. However, by demonstrating the central government's policies through (PEN) and local governments in economic recovery, optimism for economic growth will increase from the second quarter, assuming that institutionally it is well-managed. The economic recovery strategy can be carried out through five activities in 2020 in the third to fourth quarters and in 2021.