The Effect of Inflation, Us Dollar Exchange Rate, and Interest Rates on Gold Prices
Abstract
This study aims to analyze the simultaneous and partial influence of domestic macroeconomic indicators which include Inflation, US Dollar Exchange Rate (USD/IDR), and Interest Rate (BI-Rate) on Gold Price movements in the Indonesian domestic market. Using a quantitative approach and causal-comparative design (ex post facto), this study uses monthly secondary data for the period 2020-2024 (60 samples) which were analyzed through multiple linear regression and classical assumption tests. The results show that simultaneously, the three macroeconomic variables have a significant influence on the price of gold. However, it partially proves that only the US dollar exchange rate variable has a positive and significant influence, while inflation and local interest rates do not have a significant partial impact on domestic gold prices. This model shows a high Adjusted R Square value of 97.5%, which indicates a symptom of a long-term spurious trend typical of time-series macro data, requiring caution in interpretation. For entrepreneurs and investors, these findings show that domestic gold investment is a highly effective tool to protect capital wealth in particular from the risk of exchange rate weakness, rather than from changes in local interest rates. The study makes a new contribution by proving that the determination of domestic gold prices in the midst of extreme monetary shocks is purely driven by currency translation mechanisms, not by international safe haven competition.
Keywords
Full Text:
PDFReferences
Aprizal, S., & Harahap, M. N. (2025). Determinants of Gold Prices in Indonesia Period of 2018-2022. Jurnal Ilmu Manajemen Dan Ekonomika, 17(02), 185–202. https://journal.ibs.ac.id/index.php/jime/
Aryansyah, A. F. (2025). Dasar-Dasar Teori Inflasi Dari Pemikiran Klasik Hingga Keynesian. 06/11/2025. https://books.google.co.id/books?id=_eZBEQAAQBAJ&pg=PA38&dq=inflasi&hl=id&newbks=1&newbks_redir=0&source=gb_mobile_search&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwingJzewI2RAxX2XWwGHWXQBn4Q6AF6BAgLEAM#v=onepage&q=inflasi&f=false
Cahyo, D. I., Syaifudin, A. A., & Al-fiyah, T. (2023). PENGARUH INFLASI DAN KURS TERHADAP PROFITABILITAS HARGA EMAS (PADA BANK UMUM SYARIAH DI INDONESIA TAHUN 2017-2020). INCOME, 4(1), 58–75. https://doi.org/10.38156/akuntansi.v4i1.168
Devia, V., & Fadli, F. (2023). Mendalami Korelasi Pasar Saham, Inflasi, Dan Nilai Tukar. Tim UB Press. https://books.google.co.id/books?id=LPjvEAAAQBAJ&pg=PA15&dq=inflasi&hl=id&newbks=1&newbks_redir=0&source=gb_mobile_search&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwingJzewI2RAxX2XWwGHWXQBn4Q6AF6BAgHEAM#v=onepage&q=inflasi&f=false
Hasanudin, Suradi, R., Supriyanto, E., & Permadi, A. (2022).
Dynamics of Gold Prices in Indonesia; A Short-Term and Long-Term Estimation Approach. EcceS (Economics, Social, and Development Studies), 9(1), 21–41. https://doi.org/10.24252/ecc.v9i1.29325
Jannah, R. K., & Agustina, D. (2025). Analysis of Gold Price Forecasts Using Automatic Clustering Method and Fuzzy Logic Relationship. Jurnal Varian, 8(2), 165–178. https://doi.org/10.30812/varian.v8i2.4382
Kesarditama, F., Haryadi, H., & Vyn Amzar, Y. (2020). Pengaruh inflasi, nilai tukar rupiah per dollar Amerika, harga minyak mentah dunia dan indeks harga saham gabungan terhadap harga emas di Indonesia. e-Journal Perdagangan Industri dan Moneter, 8(2), 55–64. https://doi.org/10.22437/pim.v8i2.8269
Lastri, L. (2021). ANALISIS HARGA EMAS DI INDONESIA (Studi Empiris Tahun 1996-2020). Jurnal Manajemen dan Bisnis, 21(1), 128–136. https://doi.org/10.54367/jmb.v21i1.1191
Nuraini, L. S. (2023). Dampak Kurs, Suku Bunga, IHSG, Inflasi dan Permintaan Emas Terhadap Harga Emas di Indonesia Tahun 2018-2021. Ekonomikawan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi dan Studi Pembangunan, 23(1), 66–75. https://doi.org/10.30596/ekonomikawan.v23i1.10124
Purnamasari, P., Maharani, M., Nurmalasari, D., Daniyah, A. P., Ibadurrohman, H., & Zacky, M. (2024). INFLASI RUPIAH MEMPENGARUHI KENAIKAN HARGA EMAS DI PASAR INTERNASIONAL. Jurnal Spektrum Ekonomi, 7(7), 131–135. https://share.google/bSJBPKXa0ReMqGNwJ
Rahmansyah, I. C., & Rani, L. N. (2021). Gold Price, Inflation, and Dollar Exchange Rate: The Case of Gold Investment in Indonesia. Indonesian Capital Market Review, 13(1), 37–47. https://doi.org/10.21002/icmr.v13i1.13238
Septevenus, W., Lesmana, I., Sitardja, M., Biantara, D., & Handayani, S. (2024). Analysis of The Effect of Growth Domestic Product Growth, Consumer Price Index, Inflation, BI Interst Rate, and The Rupiah- Dollar Exchange Rate on Gold Price. Journal of Economics and Business, 6(01), 83–92. https://doi.org/10.58471/%2520jecombi.v6i01
Seruni, Y., & Rizal, N. A. (2023). Pengaruh Harga Imbal Hasil Obligasi, Indeks Dolar, Tingkat Inflasi, dan Suku Bunga Amerika Serikat terhadap Harga Emas Kontrak Berjangka pada Investasi Gold Loco London pada Masa Pandemi Covid-19. Journal of Management & Business, 6, 329–338. https://share.google/xDGpsxIzP0DDjW2JP
Sunaryo, S. (2022). DETERMINAN HARGA EMAS. Kinerja, 5(01), 1–17. https://doi.org/10.34005/kinerja.v5i01.2126
Yanto, M., Sanjaya, S., Yulasmi, Y., Guswandi, D., & Arlis, S. (2021). Implementation multiple linear regresion in neural network predict gold price. Indonesian Journal of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, 22(3), 1635. https://doi.org/10.11591/ijeecs.v22.i3.pp1635-1642
Yuwono, W., Calvin, C., Budiman, J., & Marheni, D. K. (2025). PENGARUH FAKTOR EKONOMI MAKRO TERHADAP HARGA EMAS DI INDONESIA. JURNAL LENTERA BISNIS, 14(2), 1592–1606. https://doi.org/10.34127/jrlab.v14i2.1514
DOI: https://doi.org/10.21107/jsmb.v13i1.32518
Refbacks
- There are currently no refbacks.
Copyright (c) 2026 Putri Setya Wulandari, Lidya Nova Anggraini, Bintis Ti'anatud Diniati, Billbina Elsa Cahya Agustina, Alfi Saidah
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Jurnal Studi Manajemen dan Bisnis by Universitas Trunojoyo Madura is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.