Forecasting Crime: Application of Trend Projection Method in Sumenep District

Eza Rahmanita, Luluk Fauziah, Wahyudi Agustiono


Criminal activity is possible to happen every day. The police carries out the recording process of criminal reports without any further data processing to obtain a useful solution for handling the crime. One forecasting method can be used to process criminal data in order to produce predictions of crime, so that it can be used by the police as the crime prevention tool. One forecasting method used is the Trend Projection Method. This method matches the trend line to a series of historical data which will be projected into the future with a period of time. This method requires data from previous years so that this study took data 4 years earlier. With this forecasting method, the result of criminal forecasting value is almost close to the actual data. From the results of the testing system on 5 sub-districts for motor vehicle thievery, the accuracy system value was 32%, 5 subdistricts for theft of goods obtained an accuracy value of 16%, and 4 sub- districts for theft of animals obtained an accuracy of 6%

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