Model Peramalan Inflasi Bahan Makanan Primer dengan Pendekatan Box-Jenkins: Studi kasus di Kota Palu

Rustam Abd Rauf, Arifuddin Lamusa, Samsul Bahri, M. Alfit A. Laihi, Effendy Effendy

Abstract


Inflasi merupakan naiknya harga barang dan jasa secara umum dan berkelanjutan pada periode tertentu. Inflasi pada umumnya disebabkan oleh peningkatan permintaan agregat, kenaikan biaya produksi serta perkiraan nilai inflasi pada masa yang akan datang. Inflasi merupakan data deret waktu yang sulit diprediksi karena mengandung komponen tren, musiman, siklus, dan acak. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mencari model terbaik inflasi bahan makanan primer, menggunakan model ARIMA. Model terbaik yang diperoleh berdasarkan subkelompok bahan makanan adalah padi-padian, umbi-umbian, dan hasil-hasilnya (25,0,4): daging dan hasil-hasilnya (2,0,10): ikan segar (2,0,8): ikan diawetkan (2,0,8): telur, susu, dan hasil-hasilnya (12,0,20): sayur-sayuran (12,0,12): kacang-kacangan (14,0,13): buah-buahan (8,0,1): bumbu-bumbuan (1,0,1): lemak dan minyak (19,0,0) dan bahan makanan lainnya (25,0,3).


Keywords


Deret Waktu, Inflasi, ARIMA

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.21107/agriekonomika.v9i1.6440

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